Google believe that they might be able to predict an outbreak of influenza two weeks before the American Disease Control authorities currently do.
This has profound implications for the way the public sector handles the outbreak of a virus. Just off the top of my head I can think of the following advantages to a two week ‘heads up’ on an outbreak:
1. Immediate public information campaigns.
2. NHS can reschedule staffing rotas to deal with the anticipated increase in patients.
3. Vaccination programmes can be stepped up around the geographic source of the outbreak.
In the case of an outbreak of pandemic flu, the early warning could be vitally important.
4. Scientists would have a fortnight’s advance notice to develop a vaccine, ensuring they can get to people before the peak of the curve.
5. Government could significantly scale up the co-ordination of all the authorities in advance of the outbreak spreading to large numbers of people.
I’ve asked officials to look at the google model very seriously to consider how we can build it into the UK’s plans for tackling flu and other virus outbreaks.
2 comments ↓
No Tom – just think about it. This is post event data; instead of being two weeks too late you will be just two days too late. Too late all the same.
Though I to be fair I think that you are right to be looking at it, but it isn’t a solution.
Not necessarily so, Mr Jabberwock.
Google were looking at groupings of keywords which indicate people looking for information on the ‘flu and ‘flu symptoms. Such analysis would mean we were too late for the early snifflers, but the rotas could be amended and the like before the full outbreak hits an area.
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