How on earth did LabourHome find their sample group of Labour Party members for their so-called poll? Why on earth did the Independent splash a story that is based on completely unscientific findings? We live in turbulent times but this is just shoddy.
The evidence, anecdotal though it is, though probably as statistically valid as LabourHome’s survey, is that grass roots members are in despair right now. They want their leader to be given a chance. And from talking to my own members, to MPs, regional staff and officers at HQ, there is a collective fury amongst our grass roots that is not reflected in LabourHome’s so-called poll.
Alex Hilton – you’re a friend, but you’re also a very naughty boy.
UPDATE: Luke Akehurst has a more detailed response.
45 comments ↓
Could it not be that your own sampling is less than representative?
quite simply they e mailed me as a party member to ask my opinion.Which is something of a novelty as the party only ever e mail me to ask for money.Although you are correct about the mixture of fury and despair currently gripping grassroots
Shoot the messenger Tom, pretend it isn’t so. The bunker is in denial.
Plenty of fury on display in yesterday’s Question Time. You lot are getting more and more desperate.
No Tom. What’s ‘shoddy’ is to mock the poll and call it unscientific without explaining the nature of your objection to its methodology, and to deny its findings on the basis of what you yourself describe as ‘anecdotal’ evidence.
Berlin’s in flames above the bunker. Time to hand the revolver to Brown.
It probably is statistically insignificant.
It probably is unscientific.
But, at the same time, it probably is right.
1 vote for this being unmoderated, if theres a groundswell of pro gordon opinion I’d love to see it in its undiluted context…
Tom said “They want their leader to be given a chance.”
Ummm, who is saying that ? Really. It’s a staggering statement. Even the most fervent supporter of Labour thinks Gordon is a good PM.
Our leader *has* been given a chance. He’s been PM over a year and it’s been an unmitigated disaster.
If you really believe that everyone wants “Gordon to be given a chance” then call a general election and we can find out once and for all who is right – the pollsters or you.
How did they get their sample? Dunno? How did New Labour get their Citizens’ Juries? Do know. Hand-picked them.
So your point is what, exactly, Tom?
Who cares anyway – Brown is a dead man walking, thought very capable of further damage to the country before he is gone.
You are on the inside – could you tell me why Brown, who has had 11 years to “clean up the City”, has only just decided to do it, and then on the false claim that HBOS were shorted. Why, his sock puppet said a week ago they were in trouble?
Out here in the real world, New Labour (New Stasi) are derided and despised. In short – we HATE you. And I say that as a man who voted Labour in his first vote in 1970, until Blair led us into Iraq.
Never again. Oh no. Indeed, I am now actively campaigning for your downfall and hopefully, extinction.
Yes, I agree. The grassroots are 100% behind Gordon. They think he is the right man for the job. He has the experience and the character to guide us through these tough times.
And in other news, Elvis Presley has been found living on the moon. And Tom Watson is a parsnip.
I think Alex/LabourHome has done the party a real service and shown real guts with this. The party is heading for electoral disaster and has to face up to itself if it wants any hope of future success.
Alex should push on with this and ignore the Ostrich brigade.
To criticise Alex Hilton for this is pathetic Tom.
Someone asked the Labour members what thought and they responded – maybe you should consider doing it sometime.
And for those of us that actually listen, it is a fair reflection of what people think. In fact we’re surprise at the level of support for the leadership.
85.8% want higher taxes for people earning over £250,000 per year.
48.2% want the money raised to be put into tax cuts for people on middle and lower incomes.
51.8% want the money raised to be spent on maintaining public spending levels.
These sound creible responses to questions…why is the majority in favour of a new leader so incredible? I suggest that the bunker are in panic mode. If Gordon can’t get his own support on side, what chance of getting those who are about to vote Tory to change their minds?
LOL, I voted in that poll and I’m a Tory. It’s easy enough to slip past Alex’s inept attempts at Tory-spotting.
I said Gordo had to go and Moribund was the saviour. I reasoned these answers would do Labour the most damage and it seems I was right.
In fact I’d like a Labour leadership ticket of Balls and Harman. That would probably get the Tories to around 75%! – but it won’t happen. Everybody hates Ed “So what?” Balls, everybody who’s white / working class / male hates Harman, and even the thick party can see that.
You’ll go into the next election with the obvious candidate as leader – you always do. And your leaders are always rubbish. Wilson (crook), Callaghan (complacent), Foot (fool), Kinnock (fool), Smith (pompous fool), Blair (evil incarnate), Broon (snot-eating fool).
Upset that Harrier Harman claimed to have visited Basildon on Question time.
She visited CORRINGHAM not BASILDON!
TW: “This poll is completely unscientific! Refer instead to my anecdotes about how everyone loves Gordo”
Here’s an anecdote for you: the leader of the Labour group on my local council has already had to step in once to stop our councillors sending “Brown has to go” discussions around their email list because it is embarassing to our MP (a sitting cabinet minister).
I’m not sure what the grass roots are _actually_ more furious about – the inability of GB to lead from the front and develop a compelling narrative on what we’re about or the continued denial from some quarters that this is even a factor.
Just join hands and give Gordon a chance: if we just stop despairing, he’ll change policies that he had a hand in for 10 years of Blair (Iraq, PFI) and he’ll change policies that he’s accelerating (city academies). Just give Gordon a chance to continue Tony’s work. Don’t worry if the Tories reach 55% … give Gordon a chance! Being PM is tough work, especially when you have had 13 years to prepare for it.
[...] see that both Tom and Luke Akehurst has tried to broach the issue tactfully, which I guess leave it to me to come [...]
85.8% want higher taxes for people earning over £250,000 per year.
its a small point but people earning over £250,000 Do pay more more taxes.
40% of a bigger number is more than 40% of a smaller one.
£10 x 40% = £4
£1 x 40% = £0.40
Ten times the difference. Do you see?
I’m sorry your internal polling shows Gordon is a great Leader loved by all and fated to win a fourth term for Labour.
But of course I bet you only polled loyal supporters… because if you read Labour Home the number of Gordon supporting Labour voters looks rather lower than 40% – maybe one in four.
Or is your polling the same that Gordon did not use when he called off the General Election which never was?
As you know very well, private polling means nothing if the method , sample size and timing is not revealed.
Since you choose to reveal nothing, we can assume you are talking your own book. I.e. we can safely ignore EVERYTHING you say on internal polling.
OH TOM!!
You don’t care because you have one of the counrty’s safest seats!
Spare a thought for your colleages defending seats in the south.
It was you who helped get us into this mess by knifing Blair because “Brown will be sooo popular”.
Well, you were WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG.
I knew you were at the time, but still you cannot admit your error.
Tom,
You feel it’s unhelpful for LabourHome to speak up for the grassroots…
Well, someone has to, because you lot when we had a chance to elect a leader. Instead we’ve got a psuedo-dictatorship who is ignoring Labour’s prinicples and continues to suck up to the right-wing in this country.
42 days detention and the continuing victimisation of Muslims comes to mind.
Of course the public voted for Blair as PM, and your party voted for Blair as leader.
After some – ahem – disloyalty – both democratic mandates were over turned, in a coup and Brown managed to prevent anyone from standing against him to be crowned Labour leader.
Pot calling the kettle black eh ?
Alex Hilton is in business with Paul Staines (Guido Fawkes) – the convicted proprietor of the right wing, unpleasant and often infantile order-order website. It’s hard to see how Hilton can reconcile his beliefs with his activities. This seems to me more of the same – his desire for self-publicity outstripping any desire to help the Labour Party.
Tom – if you have this “evidence” why not disclose it? The only evidence there is on this site is the 19 posts above me ALL of which say Brown is a leper for the Labour party and must go.
I’ve just read the comments above – talk about group hysteria. What are people bellyaching about? Thank goodness we have a leader who has managed our home finances so well for the past ten/eleven years and so has enough front line experience to deal with the structures of global economic events to protect us as much as possible. How inappropriate for those caught up in the moral panic to ask GB and those around him to add a leadership election to “save the Labour Party” when we need his expertise to steer the ship now more than ever. ….So you think Geo Osborne has the nouse to do better? I don’t think so.
I believe that the problem with the Labour Party currently, is that it has adopted such a bunker mentallity that it has stopped seeing what is going on in the real world and has put the shutters up against anyone that is outside of the inner cabal. When it eventually comes up for air, it might actually realise that there are real people up here who have had enough of Gordon and his cohorts for a lifetime.
There is life after Gordon you know!
Wow. I have sockpuppets. Made it.
85.8% want higher taxes for people earning over £250,000 per year.
48.2% want the money raised to be put into tax cuts for people on middle and lower incomes.
………………………………………………………………….
Ya-awn – the state is that great work of fiction whereby everyone tries to live at everyone else’s expense. (Bastiat).
A more honest question would have been ‘Do you believe money should be confiscated from other people and given to you?
And PS what does ‘Brownite’ mean?
Is this some great political philosophy or short-hand for ‘I know what side my bread is buttered on,?
I think Alex has got it wrong over this issue – as you can tell by the number of posts on Labourhome he has made defending himself. Mind you, I think its more “cock-up than conspiracy”
Your first posting on your blog about the leadership debate, and its about something as trivial as a single poll. Come on Tom, you were more forward in the past about discussing a Party’s leader’s utility to the Labour Movement; what’s your take on Brown ability to communicate with the electorate, set out a vision and overcome a 28 point gap with the Tories?
What do leaders do in times of difficulty? They normally turn their guns on the enemy – rather their own side. The Tories have a virtual policy vacuum at the present time – but are just not being challenged. What would they have done about rising commodity prices and all the problems in the financial markets? The short answer is nothing given their commitment to further deregulation and non interference in markets – although they may have asked their friends in the hedge funds for further donations. At just the time when the case is strongest for regulation and management of markets – on an international basis – we seem to be ramping up internal conflict. Everyone is just crying out for some genuine leadership – at the moment I am not too interested where it comes from.
How does it feel to be on the other end of a coup? What goes around comes around.
Alex Hilton’s poll was the most idiotic, brainless piece of stupidity. Talk about handing the Tory media what they want!
I wanted to give Brown a chance, but he hasn’t performed. Oops! But I’m glad Ruth Kelly was near the bottom, and a bit sad that the Chancellor was actually bottom. But then I know a bit about transport, and Ruth doesn’t.
Tom, while I support your despair at how The Indpendent used the ‘poll’, it is equally unrealistic and unfair of you to cite your anecdotal evidence. My experience is the exact opposite and outside of really hard core activists I’d struggle to find a member that would defend the leader. Members I speak to are passionate about the Party and what it can do for those most in need. They see the leader as an impediment to succeeding in that.
But I’m not going to claim that my anecdotal evidence is any better than yours, you shouldn’t either.
What the heck is the problem here ?
I thought Gordon Brown ended up relatively well out of this poll ? It is, in effect, saying that around half the party might not be happy if the PM was ‘thrown under a bus’ so to speak ?
And it did not indicate that the 54% agreed on a specific ‘Alternative To Gordon’ candidate – so why are you shooting the messenger..?
[...] on from and certainly coming to the party late on this one as usual from over MoT, Tom Watson, and Luke Akenhurst there seems to be a bit of trouble regarding a little poll of [...]
Well Tom, you really stirred up a hornets nest there. Given the lack of comment you normally get to your posts this one is quite clear – Gordon has to go, as decent as a man he is, he isn’t the right man to lead the country. You know it, I know it, your readers know it and so do the majority of the public know it. Gordon did a good job as chancellor introducing tax after tax in the good times. He robbed us blind and killed our pensions but left us nothing for the bad times. It is fallacy to say he can stear us through this – as other bloggers say “he can stear is only one direction – to an unmitigating disaster”. I sell to Government and I spend my time around whitehall. I can find no official or labout MP who thinks Gordon should continue. We have a policy vacuum, we have death by a thousand useless initiatives and No 10 out of kilter with Sos’s. One day someone will review all of Gordon’s announcements since he came in as PM and just check what he has actually implemented – we all know the answer… nothing. This sums up the last year of progress… nothing. You Tom, must ask yourself what you personally have achieved for the good of us citizens after all this is why you were voted in. Perhaps you could dedicte a posting to it telling us what difference you personally have made. As a supplier I have met you, listened to your words, listened to your committments, and now I would like us all to assess the end of term report, and yes I do believe we are coming to the end of the term.
This poll doesn’t tie up with my contacts with Labour activists. Sorry kids, but that’s the way it is with people I’ve met. Not scientific in any way, but neither is LabourHome’s poll.
[...] activists’ – which anyone familiar with Labourhome can tell you, it doesn’t, as Tom Watson MP outlines. John Harris is also at it, evidently so swept up by the Labour conference that he can really see [...]
“How on earth did LabourHome find their sample group of Labour Party members for their so-called poll?”
I received an email with a link to SurveyMonkey and I lied and said I was a member (more than once). I;m sure others did too.
See the link above; we spotted the weakness in ALex’s methodology. See the summary here;- http://dogstarscribe.wordpress.com/2008/09/22/luke-akehurst-labourhome-and-that-astro-turfed-grassroots-survey/
Freddy: You have obviously been talking to priviledged members of the community – those with pensions – those with high enough incomes to pay tax. Speak to families with young children and low incomes – they would certainly contradict you. Oh! and some of us are old enough to remember an NHS with long waiting lists – 1960s 5 years for complex ENT work for example, 1970s 1 year wait for a hearing test – there have been vast improvements in waiting times since 1997. Thats just for starters.
[...] mainstream media’ approach espoused by Dodgy, the Drunken Driver or the remarkably hamfisted Alex Hilton. Read Tim Ireland’s comments here. Posted in [...]
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