In his book, The Hammer of the Left, John Golding chronicles the titanic struggle of ideas and for control that left the Labour Party in paralysis for over a decade. Golding’s aim was to be “accurate but unfair” to his opponents, messrs Benn and Heffer. In the end, his fierce hatred of Labour’s hard left cost him greater political advancement. He gave up his seat in 1986. But arguably his vehemence created the conditions that allowed Neil Kinnock to begin the process of deep and lasting change in the aftermath of election defeat in 1987.
That struggle of the 1980′s is often satirised by many on my own side. I remember Matthew Taylor dismissing some of those old “cold war warriors” who fought the good fight in the “dark days of the 1980′s” when they failed to wholeheartedly endorse another modernising measure emanating from the number 10 policy unit in the late nineties. This was an unfair characterisation by Taylor, but he had the benefit of being on the shirt tails of power. He could write history. The cold war warriors had missed their time. We all knew it but Taylor couldn’t resist reminding them of it.
The self-styled heir to Blair, Mr David Cameron, should learn those lessons of Labour in the 1980’s.
Back in 1987 when I was a gauche runner-arounder at Labour’s head office in the Walworth Road, one of my tasks was to photocopy and distribute the private polling to the Campaign Management team at their early morning meeting. After the meeting, I had to collect the polling reports and destroy them – so bad were the figures in the early days of the campaign. From memory, I think on the first day of the short campaign, the Tories had a Mori poll rating of 50%.
I recently sat opposite Bob Worcester at a dinner who confirmed that his polling figures were cataclysmic for Labour. He was later removed as Labour’s pollster after 20 years of service. People claim that he gave too much bad news to Neil Kinnock and that Mandelson resented this. I have no idea whether this is an accurate account but it wouldn’t surprise me.
Peter Mandelson worked wonders throughout 1986 and early ’87. A new logo – a rose, an election broadcast by Hugh Hudson, a cast of stars from Ben Elton to Larry Adler added a real spark to the campaign. In the end we were annihilated. That struggle for ideas had not been won and the electorate new it. We had offered them a number of short-term patches to policies that weren’t right for the times.
This is Cameron’s dilemma. He has not won the battle for ideas in his party. The fact that John Redwood and Norman Tebbit still matter is proof of this. For all the leafy trees and polar expeditions, he is still sending out baffling and confused messages to people.
So his speech to the Conservative conference this week will be the most important of his political life. He has a big choice and no room for fudging it. Either he retreats into history (the Hague option) or he stands defiantly for change in his party and all the short-term consequences that this will bring.
If the headlines the day after his speech are about immigration, law and order and nimbyism we will know that he has sacrificed his modernising mission in order harden his diminishing “core” vote in readiness for an election. George Osborne’s recent interview in the Spectator seems to suggest that this is the route Mr Cameron will take, though others tell me that this is George repositioning himself for a post-election leadership bid. Only time will tell.
Back in 1983, John Golding surprised opponents by enthusiastically supporting the draft of the manifesto now infamously described as the longest suicide note in history. To Golding, the election of ’83 was already lost. He was playing a longer game where the generals of defeat would be removed from the party once and for all.
Will David Cameron have the strength of character to tell his own generals of defeat what they don’t want to hear? Will he condemn the nasty party? Stand up for continued investment in public services? Restate his green credentials? Stand up for building more affordable housing?
Though I’m obviously about as partisan as they get in this debate, I almost want him to defy his critics. If he does, he’ll bring out into the public domain what we all know any way – that there is a battle raging for the future of the Conservative party. Struggle is something Mr Cameron has never really experienced in life. But struggle he must if he wishes history to be kind to him.
8 comments ↓
What I was most impressed with about Golding’s strategy was the way he succeeded in engineering that little war in the South Atlantic that took Thatcher from being polled as the most unpopular Conservative leader in polling history in Bob Worcester’s polls… to a resounding victory. This, of course, gave the non-SDP right-wing the opportunity they were looking for; a chance to blame the defeat not on the hopelessness they had created in office between ’76 and ’79… but the poor beleaguered left who had never held office for a single day.
In 20 years time Tom, when I’m dribbling in the corner of my MacDonalds Rest Home for the Elderly, you will be able to re-write the history of our defeat in 2013… and I bet the left are blamed for our defeat. You see… in one version of history, it is always our fault.
Hi sorry if this isn’t the correct place, but I wonder if you could blog about the HEFCE funding cuts. It’s a hugely important issue, and it’s not going to go away. We’ve got a facebook group, a web site going live very shortly and various blogs.
http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=5335572035
I’d love to know your stance on this issue.
Many thanks
Linda
Most of this is noise and the grammar and spelling is as poor as usual, but you know as well as anyone that Cameron is Osborne’s only meal ticket. Re the nasty party, yes, I expect him to attack the government record.
Good post, Tom. But I talked to John about the way he approached the manifesto in ’83 and while he may have not done one of his famous rearguard actions the reason was less about the post election fall out for the hard Left than his inability to get the vote for a more sensible position.
He told me that the group he drew together ranged from the hard Right through to those who were loyal to Foot. Many of that group were anti-Europe and anti-nuclear, positions that Foot also took, and that meant that people like him, Kaufman and Hattersley could do little to change the manifesto.
Of course John and his allies did then go on to organise even more effectively against the hard Left post ’83, helping Kinnock to do what needed to be done.
What I can’t see – but maybe I’m not best placed – is where are the John Golding’s of the Conservative Party?
It is a mistake to think he is not popular with his party in the deep blue shires.
I live in the West Country and he can do nothing wrong as far as the Tories here are concerned, as long as he delivers on hunting and Europe they dont mind what else he comes out with.
They have 100s of activists (many of them supplied by the Countryside Alliance) lined up for each of the hyper marginal seats in the West Of England that they must win if they are to form a government.
Opinion polls dont show all this.
Camerons hunting friends have 50,000 activists ready (and already working on the ground) to take the marginal seats.
Bob – Yes, the splitters and the Falklands played a part but I think it is impossible to make the case that our policies at the time were credible to most people in Britain. Though you’re right about one thing, we will be arguing about this in 20 years time.
Andrew, thanks for that personal analysis. I wish I’d met John.
Dominic – welcome back, I’ve not seen you over here for a while. Your harsh views on Osborne are chronicled all over the internet. I take it you wont be supporting him for the leadership.
Chris- Interesting post. I think Cameron said that the first thing he will do if he became PM was to repeal the hunting laws, so it is no surprise that the countryside alliance are supporting him.
I enjoyed your post. I was very active in those days, and yes I viewed John Golding as impossibly right wing. There was a thrill about being on the left of the political spectrum. Mind you the consequences of it all brought enlightenment – that and higher education! Ideas alone don’t make society more inclusive and fairer, neither does the economy its back to tactics and political manoevering or, as they say the Art of the Possible. So 30 years on I am a big supporter of new labour but I just love the understanding of how things work Marx gives us.
Tom
Please tell your colleagues how important it is to highlight to the public what it is that Cameron stands for re hunting.
The public must be made aware of his closeness to the hunt thugs and his pledge to ensure the ban on hunting is repealed as soon as he gets into power.
Much of the media is pro hunt (including papers like the Guardian and Independent) so it is vital the message is got out there to voters.
Many thanks
Chris
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