Come back Charlie

I’ve just looked at the YouGov poll. Labour:40% Conservative:39% Lib Dem:13%.

I typed these figures into the prediction model at electoral calculus and it gave the Lib Dems two seats. Alas, one of them was not Birmingham Yardley.

You reap what you sow.


#1 Unity on 01.27.06 at 3:20 pm

Never mind. Simon Hughes still thinks they could ‘win big’ at the next election and go on to a landslide…

#2 leon on 01.27.06 at 3:42 pm

“There are no swing calculators based on the new boundaries but, if you put these figures into Martin Baxter�s calculator based on the old boundaries, you end up with the Lib Dems reduced to only 2 seats (Alistair Carmichael and Charlie Kennedy). The reason it�s so extreme is because Martin�s calculator is based upon a proportional swing – i.e. the Lib Dems have lost 43% of their vote at the last election so their vote in each seat is reduced by 43%. Standard uniform swing calculators on the other hand are done on the asumption that parties� votes change by the same amount in each seat – i.e. the Lib Dem vote falls by 10 percentage points in each seat. This would leave the Lib Dems with about 21 seats if they got 13% of the vote.”

#3 Gary Barford on 01.27.06 at 4:11 pm

The Conservative figure is 39% rather than 30%.

#4 Bob Piper on 01.27.06 at 5:03 pm

I can hear a weeping, wailing a gnashing of teeth.

#5 Joe S on 01.27.06 at 6:00 pm

I wonder if the drop in support is just because of the “national” issues. Our Lib Dem council in Bristol is also doing its bit. Proposing to close the central library, shutting swimming pools, a whole list of lunatic decisions!

No wonder there is no Lib Dem leadership hustings in the area, they must be really ashamed!

#6 Hughes Views on 01.27.06 at 6:25 pm

Don’t get too carried away – the Tories are allegedly on 39% not 30% (the keys are very close I know)…….

#7 tom on 01.27.06 at 10:20 pm

Thanks for pointing out the typographical error. The electoral calculus prediction was based on the Tories being on 39% though. Obviously its not the real picture but if I was the numbers man at Cowley Street, I’d be firing memos off to the great and the good this weekend.

Anyway, I’ve amended the figure in the post.


#8 Tim Pendry on 01.29.06 at 4:06 pm

Genuine question – according to the rules of the Liberal Democrats (they are not my lot so I don’t know how they run themselves at these times), could Charlie change his mind this week and decide he will stand again now that he has smoked out his opposition and found it pretty useless? Ming might concede and the Party and even the public might rally round on a sympathy vote – Hughes would be dished, it would be a straight fight between Kennedy and Huhne, the Oatenists would move across to Cameron … or is it really down to Campbell, Hughes and the relatively unknown Huhne.

#9 James Graham on 02.25.06 at 5:15 pm

Have you typed in the latest figures yet Tom?

#10 David on 03.02.06 at 12:10 pm

Well the electorial calculus site is obviously a load of pish them because the Lib Dems just gave NuLabour a good and well deserved kicking in a by-election in Scotland.

#11 Antony Calvert on 03.17.06 at 11:54 pm


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